Welcome back to part two of the 2023 fantasy quarterback review.

In this blog post, I'll be going into more detail regarding the quarterback landscape. This will focus less on fantasy points, and more on the passing numbers for quarterbacks, as the previous post placed a heavy emphasis on fantasy stats. Additionally, this looking behind the curtain that is fantasy points, might reveal some quarterbacks who played well, but couldn't quite put up points, and vice versa.

As a preview, this writing will cover some key or interesting basic passing stats as scatter plots, along with a version for advanced stats. Each section will end with an optimal cluster plot (seasonal and per game versions) to get a more comprehensive recap of how quarterbacks are playing, or really passing.

Lastly, I'm introducing "sliders" as a new feature to the site in this blog. Essentially, these are plots that will have a left and right button underneath them, which will allow you to toggle between some plots. Generally, I'll be using this to cover season and per game versions of a stat more efficiently.

With all of that out of the way, let's dive in!

We start with the bread and butter of any quarterback: passing yards. The slider below allows toggling between season totals and per game numbers:

I want to start with Allen. This is why he's the QB1 overall for me, and there's a gap between him and whoever you would call QB2. He puts up good-to-elite passing numbers, and is one of the best in the business from a rushing production. This is who you want Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, etc. to become: good-to-great rushers with really strong passing capabilities.

On the subject of Fields, his passing numbers are paltry. 2562 passing yards is not great, but even taking into account the missed time, he threw 197 yards a game! Not a recipe for success as a quarterback in the league and for fantasy. It will be interesting to see what happens to Fields this offseason, as there seem to few landing spots for Chicago to trade him to - maybe his fantasy days are far closer to being over than I thought? I was thinking he would get at least one more year in Chicago or (more likely) another team, but the trade market for Fields is not looking great right now.

Pivoting to other young bucks: Stroud, Purdy and Love. All three were top 8 in passing yards, each throwing for more than 4100 yards. I gave these three some love in part one, and want to highlight them again here. It's very impressive. Furthermore, Stroud was QB3 on a passing yards per game basis, only behind Cousins and Flacco. Purdy was sixth on a per game basis, while Love was 13th - might be another reason why the price disparity between Stroud and these guys is so ridiculous. The three of them look like they'll be putting up over 4000 yards for the foreseeable future.

Cousins and Flacco are both QBs I would keep an eye on as budget options. Cousins injury discounts him, but since he doesn't depend much on rushing, I think he should be at least 80% of what he was. Flacco could be a great QB2 if he becomes a stop-gap starter somewhere, or if Watson goes down again.

Even in a down year, Mahomes was putting up numbers: 4183 total passing yards and 261 per game. Hopefully KC gets him some help in the receiving game, from a fantasy perspective.

Onward to Tua and Goff. A healthy Tua in that Miami offense looks very capable of airing it out for 4000+ yards. The same can be said of Goff in that Lions offense. As a result, I see both of these quarterbacks having quite safe floors, but unfortunately limited ceilings. Tua has never thrown for 30 or more touchdowns and Goff has hit 30+ (30 this previous season and 32 in 2018) twice in his career. 4000 passing yards provides 160 points (for leagues that score 25 yards as 1 point); however to then hit 285 total points from passing stats requires 31.25 touchdowns (in leagues that score a passing touchdowns as 4 points).

The 285 mark is specifically referenced guarantees a QB1 finish, for now at least:

The green bar graph shows the QB12 fantasy points by year - hitting 285 would guarantee a QB1 finish, but it would be below QB6 (the red bar graph shows the median QB1 - which would be the average of QB6 and QB7) since 2017 (the Mahomes effect?).

Anyway, the consequence of this is that guys like Goff and Tua are never likely to be in the top 6-8 fantasy QB conversation consistently, especially since they offer close to zero rushing production.

On the note of no rushing production, Burrow and Herbert had rough seasons this year, both dealing with injuries, and the latter with a poor coaching staff. I expect both to bounce back to their usual selves next year and be in the conversation for top 5 fantasy quarterbacks.

Flipping to more rushing quarterbacks: Hurts, Lamar, and Murray all had positives about them this year, as each finished as a top ten quarterback in fantasy points per game. However, each of them 230 passing yards a game. So, maybe the concerns about Fields are a little exaggerated? Or, more likely, it will be tough for these three to achieve consistent fantasy success?

I say more likely for the second option, as Fields has legitimate concerns, in my eyes, and outside of Hurts, neither Lamar nor Murray has had back-to-back top 5 seasons (Murray was close as QB6 in 2019 and QB3 in 2020). Maybe that's asking too much of them, but if any of them could hit about 250 passing yards a game, Allen will have more competition for QB1.

Last QB I want to point out on this slider: TLaw. A lot of things didn't quite go his or the Jaguars way this year, but TLaw did finish as QB12 for passing yards on a per game basis, so there's hope for improvement next year. Again, I worry this is it from TLaw, but I am willing to give him another season before deciding whether there's room to grow or this is it.

Moving onto to sack numbers:

I thought this would be extremely relevant to the Giants. Jones and DeVito were QB1 and QB2 on a sacks per game basis. That oline needs desperate improvement, and until that happens, I would largely avoid players there for fantasy. It's a bit of shame since Jones showed flashes of being a decent quarterback in 2022.

Additionally, this also shows how tough life is for Bryce Young right now. While his performances did not excite, there's some hope for the future as it will be hard for the Panthers to NOT add talent to the current roster.

The final name on the graph I wanted to point out was Howell - this is partly why he lost the starting job, and the Commanders will be drafting a QB at 1.02. He takes too many sacks and is a bit too careless with the ball. There's a good player in there, I think, but he has some serious weaknesses, which might limit him to being a career backup.

Three names you don't see on the per-game list and are toward the bottom in season totals: Allen, Mahomes and Purdy. Their oline quality is all solid and pretty similar in quality, so this is another Purdy is actually pretty good advertisement.

If it wasn't for Trent Williams, the 49ers might have one of the worst units in the league, and the league witnessed that when the 49ers went on a three game losing streak during his injury. That being said, this is still a testament of Purdy's pocket presence and ability to read the game. He might not be the most naturally talented QB, but Purdy has some impressive processing power.

Now for a more comprehensive view on these quarterbacks compare to each other, the clustering for the season numbers on sacks, passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions, and completion percentage:

Moving onto the per game version of the tiers above, note that the optimal number of clusters here is five instead of six:

We'll start this section by taking a look at EPA. While EPA isn't a sticky stat and does not serve as a strong metric for fantasy points, it is still useful in determining how well a player is actually playing, at least for the quarterback position. It provides insight about whether a player is playing better than expected.

For those wondering more about the importance of EPA, I strongly recommend checking out these articles at Best Ball Stats and NFELO.

The slider for season total EPA and per game EPA:

Between the season and per game averages, this shows how good, or rather explosive (in the sense of big plays), Tua is. At the same time, I would imagine the frustration of an owner grows immensely as Tua doesn't score even passing touchdowns to be anything more than a low-end QB1.

The same, more or less, could be said for Allen, Dak, and Love. Again, and I know I sound like a broken record here, this is why Allen is QB1 for me in fantasy - he has elite passing production to pair with his elite rushing production.

Mahomes is rather disappoint here, but that makes sense with the film we saw of him. The KC offense struggled and was far less explosive than past seasons.

I would be quite disappointed with Trevor Lawrence. He accrued 0 total EPA... not ideal, at all. The same could be said for Fields and Murray, as both don't appear on either plot. The latter gets a bit more of a pass for me due to the injury from last year and the talent deficit in Arizona.

Moreover, I want to point out that Flacco has an EPA per game of about -1.61. So, while he did put up numbers, his stats appear to deceive his actual performance. To put it another way, his play led to less contribution to the game score than what you would expect from an average performance.

Finally, Brock Purdy. Wow that is quite impressive. The list of players, not named Brock Purdy, to hit a mark of over 140 passing epa since 2005:

• Peyton Manning (x6)
• Tom Brady (x6)
• Drew Brees (x5)
• Carson Palmer (x1)
• Tony Romo (x1)
• Ben Roethlisberger (x2)
• Philip Rivers (x3)
• Aaron Rodgers (x3)
• Matt Ryan (x2)
• Patrick Mahomes (x3)
• Lamar Jackson (x1)
• Josh Allen (x1)

That's some pretty good company.

Another stat worth looking at is Dakota, which is a combination of EPA and CPOE (completion percentage over expected). More simply, Dakota provides us with another metric to compare how a quarterback is playing to how the average quarterback would play.

The slider below shows the Dakota season total and per game numbers:

Once more, the all around numbers do no favors for TLaw, Murray and Fields. It is interesting to see how high Browning and Mullens are, when looking at the per game numbers. They both should have NFL futures, but it is still tough to imagine them thriving as starting quarterbacks, even from a fantasy perspective.

The highlight of this data has to be Purdy again. The list of quarterbacks, not named Brock Purdy, with a season total Dakota of at least 3:

• Peyton Manning (x6)
• Tom Brady (x1)
• Drew Brees (x3)
• Carson Palmer (x1)
• Tony Romo (x1)
• Philip Rivers (x3)
• Aaron Rodgers (x3)
• Matt Ryan (x1)
• Patrick Mahomes (x1)
• Lamar Jackson (x1)

It's Purdy's world, and we're just living in it!

That will do it for this one! Hope the analysis shed some more light on the passers around the league. Keep an eye out for the follow up on the rushing component of quarterbacks.

As always, the recap again:

• Purdy is the real deal. He put up extremely impressive advanced stats this past season. This makes it hard for me to imagine him outside of the top eight or so QBs next year.
• Mahomes and Lamar are lethal and highly effective passers, even if their passing totals don't reflect it.
• Fields disappoints on basic and advanced passing stats. He stays fantasy relevant as a starter due to rushing upside, but his poor passing abilities will likely catch up to him in the NFL.
• It's hard to evaluate TLaw. On the one hand, his situation was not helped by injuries to him and the rest of the offense. On the other, he looks like a low end QB1 - at best - when looking at per game basic and advanced stats.
• All of the passing stats love Josh Allen. All the more reason he remains my QB1 overall in fantasy.

Thanks for reading!

Cheers,
Alex

Term definitions below:

• EPA (expected points added): this version of EPA is actually passing_epa. Total expected points added on pass attempts and sacks. NOTE: this uses the variable `qb_epa`, which gives QB credit for EPA for up to the point where a receiver lost a fumble after a completed catch and makes EPA work more like passing yards on plays with fumbles.
• Dakota: Adjusted EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) composite based on coefficients which best predict adjusted EPA/play in the following year.
• passing air yards: Passing air yards (includes incomplete passes).
• pacr: Passing (yards) Air (yards) Conversion Ratio - the number of passing yards per air yards thrown per game.

These terms, and other stat definitions, are defined here.